Voting ends Tuesday in Virginia on a ballot measure that would lead to a new congressional map for the state. These new districts could provide Democrats a big boost ahead of the midterms.
ROB SCHMITZ, HOST:
Voters in Virginia are weighing in on the ongoing redistricting battle between Democrats and Republicans. On Tuesday, voting ends on a ballot measure that would lead to a new congressional map. These new districts could provide Democrats a big boost ahead of midterms. NPR’s Ashley Lopez joins us now. Hey, Ashley.
ASHLEY LOPEZ, BYLINE: Hey there.
SCHMITZ: So let’s start with the vote. What exactly are voters being asked to approve here?
LOPEZ: Yeah. So they’re being asked to give state lawmakers in Virginia the ability to redraw the state’s congressional districts ahead of the midterms. Virginia is one of those states that has an independent redistricting commission which essentially takes the power of drawing political lines away from politicians. But lawmakers are asking voters there to allow them to basically circumvent that commission so that they can create roughly four more seats that could favor Democrats.
SCHMITZ: Yeah. And of course, this wouldn’t be happening, I assume, if there weren’t this ongoing fight over redistricting, right?
LOPEZ: Yeah. That’s right. I mean, this all started with President Trump getting nervous about the midterms and deciding he wanted to have a bit of an edge so his party doesn’t lose as many seats as he’s worried they might. So he asked Texas lawmakers to create five more seats that favor Republicans in the state. And since then, a bunch of other states have decided to do the same. And then in Virginia last year, Democrats took full control of the government, which allowed them to join in the fight, as well.
SCHMITZ: All right. Let’s go to the Virginia vote. What are the chances of this effort passing?
LOPEZ: You know, there’s some actual suspense here in this election. Unlike when California passed a similar ballot measure last year, this doesn’t look like it will definitely pass.
SCHMITZ: OK.
LOPEZ: That’s not entirely surprising, right? These are very different states. California is much bluer. Virginia is more of a purple state…
SCHMITZ: True.
LOPEZ: …Which means there are just more independent and Republican voters who are obviously less invested in seeing Democrats gain some political advantage.
SCHMITZ: OK. So we’re not sure, but what are the polls saying? I mean, can they tell us anything?
LOPEZ: I mean, very little, but yes. I mean, it shows that there’s slightly more support for the measure than there is disapproval. But it’s pretty close, which is why voters are getting pummeled with ads and lots of money is being spent by both sides. However, I do think it’s worth saying that if the voting trends we have seen since last year continue, this ballot measure is more likely to pass. Democrats are particularly fired up lately. We’ve seen them outperform expectations in a bunch of special elections across the country, including in Virginia – some big statewide races last year, as I mentioned. Democrats are fighting against what they see as a power grab from Republicans, and this is one of the few ways they can fight back. Democrats don’t have power in Washington, but they have full control in some states like Virginia.
SCHMITZ: It is becoming decentralized, the power. So as we mentioned here, Virginia’s the latest state to consider a new map. Get us up to speed on what other states have redistricted. What’s the national picture looking like?
LOPEZ: Yeah. So as Texas redrew its map, California Democrats countered with a ballot measure similar to Virginia’s that would allow them to basically draw lines without their independent commission. And now there are five more seats favorable to Democrats in that state – basically canceling out potential gains made by Republicans in Texas.
But Republicans in Missouri and North Carolina also created more seats for their party. Utah and Ohio had to draw new maps anyway, and Ohio’s boosted Republicans a bit, and Utah’s boosted Democrats a bit. But all told, Republicans have a bit of an edge that they were hoping for, but it’s only a couple of seats, really. But if Virginia passes this measure and adds those four seats, this could all end up in a wash.
SCHMITZ: OK. So all those states, all a wash. Once this Virginia referendum is done, are we done with this? I mean, are there any other states that you’re watching that could also change their maps ahead of November’s elections?
LOPEZ: I mean, because primary elections have already started in parts of the country, a lot of states are pretty much out of time to change their maps. A notable exception to this is Florida. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis called for a special session at the end of this month so that lawmakers, among other things, could draw more favorable seats for Republicans.
SCHMITZ: Are GOP lawmakers game to do that?
LOPEZ: I mean, many are, but there are some Republicans who are skeptical about whether this is a good idea after Democrats flipped a few state legislature seats, including one in the district that includes Mar-a-Lago. So there are some fears that making some Republican seats less safe to create new seats could actually backfire, but we’ll see. And of course, there’s this voting rights case before the Supreme Court that is looming over all of this, which could prompt more states to redistrict. But the later we get in the year, the less likely districts are to change for the midterms.
SCHMITZ: That is NPR’s Ashley Lopez. Ashley, thank you so much.
LOPEZ: Yeah. Thank you.
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